{
  "run_at": "2026-09-17T21:40:33.043931+00:00",
  "prices_fetched_at": "2026-09-17T21:40:35.159090+00:00",
  "etf": "SPXL",
  "spot": 280.760009765625,
  "spot_date": "2026-09-17",
  "spot_status": "close",
  "rating": {
    "label": "HOLD",
    "conviction": "Low",
    "score": 0.16114522625755756,
    "score_se": 0.017941602163757866,
    "borderline": false,
    "horizon_days": 126,
    "edge_annual": 0.02074038777356213,
    "sharpe_annual": 0.09201060034568377,
    "p_beat_rf": 0.51374,
    "p_positive": 0.54302,
    "median_return": 0.03060195408972799,
    "mean_return": 0.038991047029848604,
    "reasons": [
      "Typical outcome: median 6-month return +3.1% vs T-bill +2.0% (annualised edge +2.1% -> +0.07 of the score)",
      "Expected value: mean +3.9%, vol 28% -> Sharpe-like +0.09/yr (+0.09 of the score)",
      "P(beat T-bill) 51%, P(positive) 54%; 5% worst case -41.1%; P(-20% drawdown on the path) 37%",
      "S&P 500 expected total return +6.2%/yr (E/P 4.1%, div yield 1.0%, valuation and regime adj -0.1%)",
      "Implied vol 13% to the rating horizon -> leverage decay about 5%/yr; fund costs 10.6%/yr; the index needs about +7.0%/yr for SPXL's median to be flat over a year",
      "News sentiment neutral (+0.03) -> +0.1% annualised drift for 10 days in the price tables; excluded from this rating",
      "Yield curve 10y-3m +0.87%; 3m bill 4.14% sets the financing cost"
    ]
  },
  "forecast": {
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      "p_up_20": 0.04508,
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      "quantile_prices": {
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      "index_median_return": 0.06562931121021487,
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  "drivers": {
    "index_expected_return": {
      "earnings_yield_model": 0.06388545986938138,
      "dividend_growth_model": 0.0631,
      "base": 0.06349272993469068,
      "adjustments": {
        "hot_inflation": -0.00106479052919424
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      "final": 0.062427939405496444,
      "notes": [
        "CPI YoY 3.71% above 3.50%"
      ]
    },
    "fundamentals": {
      "index_level": 7637.759765625,
      "trailing_pe": 24.639366,
      "earnings_yield": 0.040585459869381384,
      "dividend_yield": 0.0098,
      "eps_growth": 0.0533,
      "book_to_price": 0.18935,
      "sales_to_price": 0.27339,
      "sources": {
        "trailing_pe": "Yahoo:SPY.info.trailingPE",
        "dividend_yield": "Yahoo:SPY.info.yield",
        "eps_growth": "real 3.0% + inflation 2.33%"
      }
    },
    "macro": {
      "rf_3m": 0.0414,
      "y2": 0.047400000000000005,
      "y5": 0.04800999641418457,
      "y10": 0.0501,
      "y30": 0.05296000003814697,
      "curve_10y_3m": 0.0087,
      "breakeven_10y": 0.0233,
      "real_10y": 0.0268,
      "sofr": 0.0362,
      "hy_oas": 0.027000000000000003,
      "unemployment": 0.040999999999999995,
      "unemployment_sahm_gap": -0.06666666666666643,
      "cpi_yoy": 0.03712958105838848,
      "vix": 15.4399995803833,
      "vix3m": 18.549999237060547,
      "vix6m": 20.299999237060547,
      "vvix": 87.72000122070312,
      "skew": 145.6999969482422,
      "dxy": 100.23100280761719,
      "oil": 101.08999633789062,
      "gold": 4380.60009765625,
      "sources": {
        "y2": "FRED:DGS2",
        "y5": "Yahoo:^FVX",
        "y10": "FRED:DGS10",
        "y30": "Yahoo:^TYX",
        "rf_3m": "FRED:DGS3MO",
        "breakeven_10y": "FRED:T10YIE",
        "real_10y": "FRED:DFII10",
        "sofr": "FRED:SOFR",
        "hy_oas": "FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
        "unemployment": "FRED:UNRATE",
        "cpi_yoy": "FRED:CPIAUCSL"
      }
    },
    "vol": {
      "pillars": {
        "21": 0.12439999580383301,
        "63": 0.13549999237060545,
        "126": 0.13299999237060547,
        "252": 0.14712069529909977
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      "notes": [
        "pillars after VRP haircuts of 3/5/7 pts: 21d 12.4%, 63d 13.5%, 126d 13.3%, 252d 14.7%",
        "realised 3m vol of SPY: 11.6% (diagnostic only)"
      ],
      "total_vol_by_horizon": {
        "21": 0.12439999580383299,
        "63": 0.13549999237060542,
        "126": 0.13299999237060547,
        "252": 0.14712069529909974
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    "etf": {
      "leverage": 3.0,
      "expense_ratio": 0.0084,
      "financing_rate": 0.0978,
      "annual_cost": 0.1062,
      "tracking_sd_daily": 0.0007895411757179912,
      "notes": [
        "expense ratio 0.84% (Yahoo info.netExpenseRatio)",
        "calibrated on 504 days (4 dislocation days excluded): beta 2.969, R2 0.999, tracking noise 0.079%/day, empirical drag +10.2%/yr (noisy)",
        "financing 2x (4.14% + 0.75% all-in spread) = 9.78%/yr"
      ],
      "calibration": {
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        "intercept_daily": -0.0004033705077036416,
        "resid_sd_daily": 0.0007895411757179912,
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        "n": 504,
        "n_outliers": 4,
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  },
  "sentiment": {
    "score": 0.026292985475253904,
    "label": "Neutral",
    "n_articles": 150,
    "n_used": 104,
    "by_ticker": {
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      "^GSPC": -0.11877933876822959,
      "^VIX": -0.3099454807083549,
      "^TNX": -0.11384221954073769,
      "NVDA": 0.13929137344122938,
      "AAPL": 0.30154655529371255,
      "MSFT": 0.20115776787895814,
      "AMZN": 0.07822304325803145,
      "GOOGL": 0.4630235086672151,
      "AVGO": -0.20015530106696128,
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        "title": "Automaker Stocks Rally as Rotation Lifts Cyclicals: General Motors Climbs 4%, Stellantis Rises 4%, Ford Gains 3%, Tesla Adds 2%",
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        "published": "2026-09-17T17:01:18+00:00"
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        "title": "Top 5 Tech Stocks Built to Weather Higher Interest Rates",
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        "title": "Stock Market Today, Sept. 17: CoreWeave Falls on Convertible Debt and Share Sale Announcement",
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        "title": "Dow Sinks 630 Points as Market Frets More Hikes Ahead",
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      "driver": "SPY total return",
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