{
 "asof": "2026-10-30T21:40:21+00:00",
 "asof_ny": "2026-10-30 17:40:21 EDT",
 "session_open": false,
 "etf": "SPXL",
 "spot": 270.3500061035156,
 "base_spot": 270.3500061035156,
 "base_run_at": "2026-10-30T21:40:21Z",
 "base_spot_status": "close",
 "change_vs_base": 0.0,
 "assessment": {
  "leverage": {
   "hurdle": 0.0748645658706002,
   "financing": 0.0986,
   "fees": 0.0084,
   "drag": 0.07305600347900401,
   "sigma": 0.1560512773407126,
   "percentile": 62.469993227099856,
   "level": "normal",
   "expected_index_return": 0.06306648622525123
  },
  "drawdown": {
   "p_dip20_3m": 0.28676,
   "typical": 0.242225,
   "percentile": 59.1226502751769,
   "level": "normal",
   "history_pred": 0.245476,
   "history_real": 0.223776,
   "history_n": 143
  },
  "range_3m": {
   "p5": 173.68434456104464,
   "median": 275.10230554728383,
   "p95": 379.22646937930375
  },
  "horizon_days": 63,
  "dip_size": 0.2,
  "period": "1990-01..2026-08",
  "notes": []
 },
 "rating": {
  "label": "HOLD",
  "conviction": "Low",
  "score": 0.10148079783606789,
  "score_se": 0.018994718253309836,
  "horizon_days": 126
 },
 "horizons": {
  "5": {
   "horizon": 5,
   "quantile_prices": {
    "5.0": 240.54267173598706,
    "10.0": 249.58157820004624,
    "25.0": 261.28105648048285,
    "50.0": 271.35818234320664,
    "75.0": 281.10760063357105,
    "90.0": 291.4909364597994,
    "95.0": 299.03943487677213
   },
   "median_return": 0.0037291519028299636,
   "mean_return": 0.0018070744186304605,
   "p_positive": 0.52838,
   "p_beat_rf": 0.52248,
   "p_drawdown_20": 0.01094,
   "p_up_20": 0.00718,
   "price_lookup": [
    {
     "price": 200.0,
     "vs_spot": -0.26021825232206197,
     "percentile": 0.3988241771224955,
     "p_end_above": 0.9960117582287751,
     "p_touch_below": 0.0044506678874179275,
     "p_touch_above": 1.0
    },
    {
     "price": 250.0,
     "vs_spot": -0.07527281540257746,
     "percentile": 10.359735573158067,
     "p_end_above": 0.8964026442684193,
     "p_touch_below": 0.1380052767291855,
     "p_touch_above": 1.0
    }
   ]
  },
  "10": {
   "horizon": 10,
   "quantile_prices": {
    "5.0": 227.95958104908595,
    "10.0": 240.14726511241642,
    "25.0": 257.1578085582335,
    "50.0": 272.1104569521097,
    "75.0": 286.2653149186786,
    "90.0": 301.13323798454076,
    "95.0": 311.2396349165792
   },
   "median_return": 0.006511747027370229,
   "mean_return": 0.0035305445323803183,
   "p_positive": 0.5343,
   "p_beat_rf": 0.52602,
   "p_drawdown_20": 0.03532,
   "p_up_20": 0.02992,
   "price_lookup": [
    {
     "price": 200.0,
     "vs_spot": -0.26021825232206197,
     "percentile": 1.1027213086759122,
     "p_end_above": 0.9889727869132409,
     "p_touch_below": 0.015106528811090257,
     "p_touch_above": 1.0
    },
    {
     "price": 250.0,
     "vs_spot": -0.07527281540257746,
     "percentile": 17.166660108267454,
     "p_end_above": 0.8283333989173255,
     "p_touch_below": 0.2574569992916802,
     "p_touch_above": 1.0
    }
   ]
  },
  "21": {
   "horizon": 21,
   "quantile_prices": {
    "5.0": 209.83412519505015,
    "10.0": 226.51479370603116,
    "25.0": 250.18240701910383,
    "50.0": 273.2257467304305,
    "75.0": 294.6695898828003,
    "90.0": 316.2546367881095,
    "95.0": 331.605975808606
   },
   "median_return": 0.01063710213423763,
   "mean_return": 0.007052736614589464,
   "p_positive": 0.53526,
   "p_beat_rf": 0.52396,
   "p_drawdown_20": 0.10168,
   "p_up_20": 0.1052,
   "price_lookup": [
    {
     "price": 200.0,
     "vs_spot": -0.26021825232206197,
     "percentile": 3.3791992354710576,
     "p_end_above": 0.9662080076452895,
     "p_touch_below": 0.04995795951366164,
     "p_touch_above": 1.0
    },
    {
     "price": 250.0,
     "vs_spot": -0.07527281540257746,
     "percentile": 24.827353038226526,
     "p_end_above": 0.7517264696177347,
     "p_touch_below": 0.414672424178597,
     "p_touch_above": 1.0
    }
   ]
  },
  "63": {
   "horizon": 63,
   "quantile_prices": {
    "5.0": 173.68434456104464,
    "10.0": 197.14139502672143,
    "25.0": 235.24760410304938,
    "50.0": 275.10230554728383,
    "75.0": 314.778433468337,
    "90.0": 353.3826462312276,
    "95.0": 379.22646937930375
   },
   "median_return": 0.017578321939998642,
   "mean_return": 0.01926572130018188,
   "p_positive": 0.53238,
   "p_beat_rf": 0.5134,
   "p_drawdown_20": 0.28676,
   "p_up_20": 0.33604,
   "price_lookup": [
    {
     "price": 200.0,
     "vs_spot": -0.26021825232206197,
     "percentile": 10.809581932977233,
     "p_end_above": 0.8919041806702277,
     "p_touch_below": 0.18478707357737903,
     "p_touch_above": 1.0
    },
    {
     "price": 250.0,
     "vs_spot": -0.07527281540257746,
     "percentile": 33.53588028054078,
     "p_end_above": 0.6646411971945922,
     "p_touch_below": 0.6193285916629743,
     "p_touch_above": 1.0
    }
   ]
  },
  "126": {
   "horizon": 126,
   "quantile_prices": {
    "5.0": 145.3213651310946,
    "10.0": 173.6332604920857,
    "25.0": 221.18486902821525,
    "50.0": 276.6657118482169,
    "75.0": 334.9850324765828,
    "90.0": 393.7079990229855,
    "95.0": 430.88819220538886
   },
   "median_return": 0.023361219168173575,
   "mean_return": 0.03980924682056029,
   "p_positive": 0.53108,
   "p_beat_rf": 0.50322,
   "p_drawdown_20": 0.42726,
   "p_up_20": 0.49772,
   "price_lookup": [
    {
     "price": 200.0,
     "vs_spot": -0.26021825232206197,
     "percentile": 17.418897187414746,
     "p_end_above": 0.8258110281258525,
     "p_touch_below": 0.3147444991733468,
     "p_touch_above": 1.0
    },
    {
     "price": 250.0,
     "vs_spot": -0.07527281540257746,
     "percentile": 37.55941188433415,
     "p_end_above": 0.6244058811566584,
     "p_touch_below": 0.717590131623743,
     "p_touch_above": 1.0
    }
   ]
  },
  "252": {
   "horizon": 252,
   "quantile_prices": {
    "5.0": 107.72373406216681,
    "10.0": 137.25818862445576,
    "25.0": 195.4413609621379,
    "50.0": 274.9907880963401,
    "75.0": 367.63438072112973,
    "90.0": 467.84748219509,
    "95.0": 537.0578992786185
   },
   "median_return": 0.017165829066219884,
   "mean_return": 0.08144946825366807,
   "p_positive": 0.51428,
   "p_beat_rf": 0.47954,
   "p_drawdown_20": 0.588,
   "p_up_20": 0.6442,
   "price_lookup": [
    {
     "price": 200.0,
     "vs_spot": -0.26021825232206197,
     "percentile": 26.349340697714776,
     "p_end_above": 0.7365065930228523,
     "p_touch_below": 0.4864299696261684,
     "p_touch_above": 1.0
    },
    {
     "price": 250.0,
     "vs_spot": -0.07527281540257746,
     "percentile": 42.15711165667819,
     "p_end_above": 0.5784288834332181,
     "p_touch_below": 0.8095284860950901,
     "p_touch_above": 1.0
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "limit_ladder": {
  "5": [
   {
    "p_fill": 1.0,
    "price": 270.3500061035156,
    "vs_spot": 0.0,
    "median_end_if_bought": 0.0037291519028299636,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.52838
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.5,
    "price": 265.36503813380114,
    "vs_spot": -0.018438941583769686,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.015390395528725787,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.32344
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.25,
    "price": 257.0722253642853,
    "vs_spot": -0.04911329920276131,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.018477996385727002,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.276
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.1,
    "price": 246.1972672251988,
    "vs_spot": -0.08933877689305048,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.02297748481642936,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.2304
   }
  ],
  "10": [
   {
    "p_fill": 1.0,
    "price": 270.3500061035156,
    "vs_spot": 0.0,
    "median_end_if_bought": 0.006511747027370118,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.5343
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.75,
    "price": 269.0141437282516,
    "vs_spot": -0.0049412330131500815,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.013657236970139097,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.41314666666666666
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.5,
    "price": 261.29931970731946,
    "vs_spot": -0.03347766299931465,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.01585204091906811,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.38188
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.25,
    "price": 249.50319563702766,
    "vs_spot": -0.07711044940204603,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.021258953789608293,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.33184
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.1,
    "price": 234.02505637347346,
    "vs_spot": -0.13436267397801915,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.025956531824567253,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.2978
   }
  ],
  "21": [
   {
    "p_fill": 1.0,
    "price": 270.3500061035156,
    "vs_spot": 0.0,
    "median_end_if_bought": 0.010637102134237741,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.53526
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.75,
    "price": 266.2611759156183,
    "vs_spot": -0.015124209711804948,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.0132754906117728,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.44565333333333335
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.5,
    "price": 254.91224570172943,
    "vs_spot": -0.057102866851333256,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.01855612736382073,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.41568
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.25,
    "price": 237.2833081951062,
    "vs_spot": -0.12231069784310766,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.022605551084699194,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.38256
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.1,
    "price": 215.90031527610685,
    "vs_spot": -0.20140443720411927,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.028103463578747823,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.3538
   }
  ],
  "63": [
   {
    "p_fill": 0.9,
    "price": 269.5438168075664,
    "vs_spot": -0.0029820206315829267,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.006729875023618548,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.48664444444444444
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.75,
    "price": 259.7042506311617,
    "vs_spot": -0.03937767794344982,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.012570201359545896,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.4722133333333333
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.5,
    "price": 239.53075100915186,
    "vs_spot": -0.1139976119792031,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.01788908021858282,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.45148
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.25,
    "price": 211.10802281779684,
    "vs_spot": -0.2191306896550812,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.02525536462430178,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.42776
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.1,
    "price": 178.62753017015464,
    "vs_spot": -0.339273067736647,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.02769354605544827,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.4124
   }
  ],
  "126": [
   {
    "p_fill": 0.9,
    "price": 267.1414338639284,
    "vs_spot": -0.011868215894763723,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.0033004109727710063,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.495
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.75,
    "price": 253.2036287716628,
    "vs_spot": -0.06342288494451731,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.013202734892396872,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.47944
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.5,
    "price": 225.91689950061655,
    "vs_spot": -0.16435400628726404,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.02095386227163787,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.46128
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.25,
    "price": 188.45326684846086,
    "vs_spot": -0.302928564476144,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.026110422608144113,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.45032
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.1,
    "price": 151.18759914190005,
    "vs_spot": -0.4407708683978683,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.038896025116123334,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.418
   }
  ],
  "252": [
   {
    "p_fill": 0.9,
    "price": 262.59042031128666,
    "vs_spot": -0.02870199969316023,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.01462888424013531,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.4871111111111111
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.75,
    "price": 241.1710721614998,
    "vs_spot": -0.10793021373501788,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.024619067162389263,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.47562666666666664
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.5,
    "price": 202.25902006938975,
    "vs_spot": -0.2518623432471986,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.03371132893856177,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.45944
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.25,
    "price": 154.51967097491823,
    "vs_spot": -0.4284458387777752,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.03470796001462828,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.45112
   },
   {
    "p_fill": 0.1,
    "price": 112.57816749932665,
    "vs_spot": -0.5835836324848425,
    "median_end_if_bought": -0.04312809360624714,
    "p_profit_if_bought": 0.4264
   }
  ]
 }
}